Global Recession : Are We Becoming Wiser?

Recession, business cycle, bubble are not new for this world. Right from 1930's onwards, there is an ample record of economy movements & major recessions, their causes & impacts. Have we learnt any lesson from each of the down turn or just become good at analysing it post facto? With so much of experience, knowledge, sophisticate modeling capability or merely improved common sense, why can't we see it coming? Why do realize it when we are only deep into it?

These questions are difficult to answer and many experts may claim that they saw it coming but as a collective human race, we have been again fooled by our psyche. Just a few months back the whole world was dancing to the tune of growth. Oil & commodity prices crossed the limits of any imagination but the greed of producers continued to grow without any limit. They kept on increasing prices to make a hay while sun shines. Same was the story for the real estate sector fueled by strong consumer demand that soon turned into a bubble with entry of investors colluding with builders. The sensex, having crossed 10000 mark did not look back, with every increase sharper & faster than before till it touched 20000 mark. Experts even forecasted sensex crossing mark of 30000 in near future.The stock market sharp rise was nothing but another bubble being built by FIIs pouring dollars into a stock market. Rupee sharply rose against dollar & analysts forecasting further strengthening of rupee.

While the experts were building castles in the air, the US economy was getting into troubled waters right from beginning of 2008. Japan was already on the edge of recession. There was increasing unemployment in US resulting in lower consumer demand. In the middle 0f 2008, alarms were raised on sub-prime concerns with many banks declaring losses. Experts failed to read the signal & assess the impact. This was another bubble waiting to burst. The experts strongly believed in it's not over until the fat lady sings.The sharp increase in food prices was attributed to food shortage due to increased consumption in India & China..... another cover story to ignore the reality.

The story of India is very peculiar. The economy was growing at 8-9% and expected to touch double digit oblivious to what was happening to commodity prices until inflation started hitting both the industry as well as common man. When crude oil prices crossed USD 100, government had no option but to increase fuel prices. Prices of common items, food and vegetables went up 30-40%. The government that was gung-ho about growth had to resort to practices of reducing liquidity in market & restricting exports but failed to make any dent on inflationary trend. That was a swing to completely opposite extreme. FIIs pulled money out of stock market to meet US financial crisis and Indian investors pulled money from real estate to face stock market crash. As a result real estate bubble also burst. Now government has reacted to recession by swinging to another extreme of loosening credit in the market. The impact of the additional money in the market is yet to be seen.

Coming back to the key issue i.e. why we didn't see it coming and took proactive steps. We became victim of our own success. Who is responsible for this? Banks, who over sold the mortgages in US? Or commodity producers who kept on increasing prices assuming demand is not sensitive to any level of price? Or investors flush with funds, who kept playing with stock & commodity prices in the market? Clearly, it is all of them. They all belong to a new sect of unregulated free economy that doesn't mind killing itself for the short term gains. They not only kill themselves but harm the entire mankind the way it hurts the most. They are a greater threat compared to any other foreseen dangers to mankind.

Are we learning a lesson & preparing to tame this sect so that we do not face similar situation in future? Hope the world will gain wisdom, amend policies, put in place some basic regulations in the free market. economy.

Role of Supply Chain In Riding Over Financial Crisis

The US economic crisis has taken all the economies, big or small, by storm. Or should we say a "Typhoon" with no signs of receding in near future? Financial liquidity has tightened & credit dried up, especially for the small businesses. In these troubled times, it is very important to be able to keep head above water. It is critical that not only you but your business partners, be it customers or suppliers, are able to survive the crisis.

Supply Chain Managers can play a very critical role to help the businesses ride over the "Economic Tsunami". Here are few suggestions, based on my own opinion and that of some of the experts:

1. Go lean on Inventory. Availability of Cash is the biggest need of the hour to sustain the business. Building inventory for strategic or speculative reasons, under these circumstances can be a disaster. Even if it means keeping your capacity or manpower idle that would erode margins, is a better option than keeping inventory for an uncertain demand that would block cash needed for meeting operating requirements of the business.

2. Don't push Inventory to Customers. It is like shooting in your own foot. There is a general tendency to push inventory to customers to achieve sales target numbers. It only converts your inventory into higher credit in market or outstanding from customers. The financial risk goes up if your customers are facing liquidity crunch and some of them go bankrupt or don't pay at all. By pushing inventory to your customers, you are not only increasing your own risk but may kill the customer with high debt.

3. Plan, Replan & Replan. In a scenario of uncertain demand, do not pre-commit resources & materials in advance. Build visibility into your demand chain and align your supply / production more frequently than you have been doing in past. Catch the demand signal early & do not hesitate to change the production schedules, even if it means more changeovers or setups on production lines.

4. Stop producing slow moving or not so fast moving items against the forecast. Rely more on the actual demand signals than on the forecast. Or best agree with your customers to produce/ assemble these items against their orders. It may lead to increase in response time but unlock the capital blocked in such items.

5. Service efficiently. It doesn't mean service at lowest cost or cutting corners. Redesign your network that can service smaller lots and at a higher frequency to your customers. If your network cannot support frequent & smaller deliveries, use a reliable 3PL. Consolidate number of service providers & shipments. Evaluate alternate modes of transport e.g. Railways, multimodal shipments that are economical as well as reliable.

6. Form alliances. Taking a cue from the alliance reached between Jet Airways and Kingfisher Airlines, it is not a bad idea to share assets wherever synergy is feasible. Join hands with others, including like mind competitors, to find collaborative ways of saving costs in manufacturing, servicing and logistics. Remember, recession is a bigger threat compared to your competitor.

7. Follow lean processes. Tough time is also an opportunity to re-engineer your processes. Evaluate your processes, cut out wasteful activities and minimize wastage in the supply chain. Order processing time, inventory idle time, supply lead times are some of the few candidates that would need a very close look. Inventory inaccuracy or leakage in warehouse, transit damages, storage conditions would require stricter controls.

8. Pay your suppliers on time. Don't push your liquidity crunch to your suppliers by delaying their payments. The suppliers sustainability is as critical as your own business continuity. Incentivize your suppliers to reduce lot sizes & implement JIT, Vendor Managed Inventory / Replenishment. Consolidate suppliers & shipments for economy of scale. Renegotiate the contracts & shift to "value" suppliers, wherever possible.

9. Motivate people & upgrade their skills. The economic scenario can dampen the spirits of SCM people due to pressures from suppliers, customers & internal stakeholders. It is important to help them overcome difficult situations, upgrade their functional & leadership skills. Motivate them to take difficult decisions that benefit overall business.

10. Network with Supply Chain professionals from similar or different industries, learn how they are coping with difficult situations, share your learning and help each other in solving the problems.

What are the key priorities & right approach for Supply Chain Skills development?

In my pursuit to get a wider view on Supply Chain skills development , I launched a survey through Linkedin . It is my pleasure to share the results of he survey. As promised, I am not going to disclose the names or the individual responses. However, I would welcome feedback & comments & continue to refine my study.

First question was, “What are the key priorities for Supply Chain skills development?” The participants were expected to rate each of the given priority as High, Medium or Low. Based on collective response the priorities have been rated in descending order.
A : Need for preparing the SC Organization to meet future business challenges.
B : Ability to assess the gaps in skills for meeting existing business requirements.
C : Need of reviewing or redefining roles & responsibility within SC organization.
D : Fill gap in Soft Skills in SC organization.
E : Fill gap in Technical or Functional skills in SC Organization.
F: Need for developing structured approach to arrive at the skill gaps.
G: Focus on continuous skills development for strategic organization development.

Clearly, building Supply Chain organization to meet future challenges is the topmost priority followed by skills needed for existing business needs. Development of soft skills scores a slight edge over the functional skills (will detail these skills as specified by the respondents).

The second question went on to ask each respondent to specify soft skills. The list was quite long, so I am including the most commonly expressed ones.

Soft Skills for Supply Chain Organization :
1. Effective Communication : Looking at the number of responses for this skill, it sounds like a “mantra” for Supply Chain. There were various forms of this skill mentioned e.g.:
· Communication with peers
· Communication with internal & external customers
· Intra-departmental communication
· Written communication
The importance of communication in Supply Chain effectiveness is well known to everyone, yet it continues to be biggest gap in all SC organization.
2. Collaboration & Coordination, not only within the organization, but across the extended enterprise ( suppliers & customers)
3. Inter-personal skills, Transparency, cooperation with stakeholders , Trust
4. Business acumen & Market understanding : I would take a liberty to expand this a bit more. Most of the SC professionals tend to be specialists and not the business managers.
5. Proactive approach & Sense of Urgency
6. Ability to analyze problems & think out of box

Functional Skills for Supply Chain Organization:

1. Sales & Operations planning, Forecasting, Inventory Management
2. Understanding of entire value chain (including constraints in each part of chain) starting from customers to suppliers
3. Supply Chain network optimization
4. Negotiation
5. Knowledge of integrated IT / ERP tools and ability to quickly adapt to enabling technologies.
6. Risk Management & Disaster Recovery
7. Project management
8. Customer Service

The final question on the skills gap was to check at what level these gaps exist & to what extent. The respondents were asked to pick up one of the level (Senior, Middle & Staff) for the soft & functional skills. The results are:

Soft Skills: 62% felt the need at Middle Management level, 30% at Senior Management Level & 8% at staff level. It is well understood that the largest need for soft skills development is at middle management level because this group plays an important role in managing ground level operations and it is also needed for them to move to senior management roles. Interestingly, many felt the need at senior management levels as well. It means many Senior Managers also lack some of the soft skills.

Functional Skills: 40% felt the need at the Senior management level, 33% at Staff level & 27% at Middle Management level.
It shows that need for development & understanding of Functional Skills is there at all the levels .

TRAINING & DEVLOPMENT
The second section analyzed the priorities for training in Supply Chain organization.

A : Need for continuous training programs for retaining talent in the Supply Chain.
B : Need for training & development support available outside organization (consultants, institutes etc.).
C : Need for training & development support available from within organization..
D : Satisfaction with the quality & relevance of the existing training programs to the job
E : Extent to which the existing training programs use Games, Simulations tools to reflect near reality scenarios.

Type of Training : 80% of the respondents felt that combination Class Room Training and eLearning is the best possible way to make training effective.

Need for external consultants : 55% of respondents are open to engaging external agency or consultants for Supply Chain training.

RECRUITMENT AND RETENTION
The last section analyzed the priorities in the recruiting & retaining talent in the Supply Chain organization.


A : Level of pre-assessment of candidates & filtering of resumes by placement
B : Ability to attract good talent in Supply chain.
C : Satisfaction with the recruitment services provided by placement consultants.
D : Attrition rate in the Supply Chain compared to other functions in your organization
Major reasons of dissatisfaction from recruitment consultants:
-Lack of Supply Chain domain knowledge
-Focus on quantity than quality
-No pre-work / whetting done on matching the job & person’s profile
-Lack of communication
-No accountability

I thank all who took time to participate in the survey & gave valuable inputs. I feel that this study will help Supply Chain Leadership to make right decisions about supply chain skills development.

Where should Demand Planning Report: Sales Organization or SCM Organization?

We had an informal meeting of small group of supply chain professionals representing various companies. One of the issues that came up incidently for discussion was, "where should Demand Planning report : SCM or Sales organization?" Everyone had very strong views about it & also a solid justification for the option selected. Then I posted the same question in Linkedin networking site and received about 25 responses on the subject during one week. The analysis of the responses is:

· 50% believed that Demand Planning should strongly report to SCM
· 23% believed that Demand Planning is one of the core responsibility of Sales & Marketing
· 18% were neutral & felt that it didn’t matter as long as accountability and processes are well defined
· 9% felt that direct reporting can be to either SCM or Sales but dotted line to the other function

Irrespective of the option chosen, all emphasized the need for collaboration to make demand planning successful.

After reading the responses I realized that it was a provocative question touching a sensitive issue. One of the respondents accused me of compartmentalizing the Demand Planning process between the functional silos. The responses included people’s personal experiences and also strong emotions about what they believed. The fact that question was posted in SCM section & responded by SCM people, it was not a surprise to receive highest number of responses in favor of “Strongly SCM”. Here is summary of the justifications given by each respondent, for each of the option:

Strongly in Favor of SCM
- Demand Planning should happen in function that is responsible for working capital management, customer service, product availability which is a SCM responsibility.

- Demand Planning is part of integrated planning process that happens in SCM function.

- Only SCM can challenge and take a balance & objective view of the demand forecast, without any influence of internal factors e.g. targets.

- Sales perspective of demand planning is to get sufficient stocks, since they are not responsible for working capital.

- Knowledge of statistical models is a core competency in SCM

- Keeping Demand Planning within SCM helps to avoid blame game

- Demand Planning needs to take into account inputs of Production, Finance, Procurement through consensus / collaborative process that is best done in SCM.

- Planning Process discipline in SCM better than Sales.Along with these justifications, there was a strong recommendation for the ability of Demand Planner to have good understanding of ground realities of market & competition.

Strongly in favor of Sales
- Demand Planning is truly a cross functional effort within an organization, but it should start with Sales driving the need for better, more accurate forecasts and demand plans.

- The role of demand planning is essentially SALES function based on different forecasting models, however its SOLE objective is to provide inputs to SUPPLY CHAIN and other stake holders (such as manufacturing, finance and HR) for both PRE Production (raw material and other manufacturing planning & execution) and POST production (distribution & logistics planning and execution).

- Sales is responsible for generating, improving and building-in the revenues / turnover of the organization.

- Sales is closest to the external customer & has first hand feel of the market demand.

- APICS state clearly that demand planning is a sales and marketing role.

- Demand planning reports directly to Sales for the simple reason that Sales manages the forecast. Organizationally, it is more efficient since the demand planner can directly communicate with Sales especially on sudden change in the market behavior. Demand Planning can focus on realizing the best mix as it directly gets input from the Sales Team.

Neutral
- As long as process happens the way it should and with clear accountabilities, doesn’t matter where it belongs.

- Demand Planning is not an exact science, so needs COLLABORATION

- Depends on the quality of people, size, type & maturity of organization.

- Let S&OP forum drive the Demand Planning process (integrated with other planning processes).

- Focus on Extended Enterprise to integrate customers & suppliers in planning processes.

- Identify critical touch point i.e. is it more critical (or complex) to drive sales to consensus or integrate consensus demand plan to operations. In former case, it should report to Sales & in the latter to SCM.

Dotted line to either Sales or SCM
- Since the Supply Chain processes are cross-functional, Demand management has to be strongly integrated with the Sales organization.

- Demand Planning Role should be a solid line reporting to Supply function from where it gets all the support and alignment for timely supplies and clarity on potential supply issues and risks. However the role should also be a dotted line reporting to Sales for the ownership of forecast and timely intimation of change in market dynamics causing a change in forecast.

These are views expressed by respondents coming from different geographies, companies & professions but all are connected to SCM profession.

I, personally, would go with the option “Neutral” (not the most popular option) and very much convinced with the justification given. While the type, size & maturity of organization is one of the factor for deciding, Demand Planning will work (irrespective of function it reports) only if :

· The rigor & discipline of S&OP is in place.
· The accountability of Demand Planning accuracy is clearly defined.
· Supply Chain configuration & design takes into account the Demand Planning capabilities or limitations
· Demand Planning is not considered as an end by itself but as a mean to achieve optimal balance between customer service, cost & working capital.
· Mixes well the science ( statistical forecasting etc.) & market intelligence through collaboration or consensus
· The information flows fast through the value chain & enables quick response to any change triggered by market or customers.

At the end, I felt it was a very involved & intense discussion as it is one of the grey areas in Supply Chain.

Building Supply Chain Competency

Every time I come across with a CEO / COO of any company, I see a tacit discontent with their Supply Chain performance written on their face. When I ask them about efforts being put on skills development of Supply Chain people by their companies, they draw a blank surface. "Yes, we send them for trainings", is the common answer.

Sending people for trainings is not same as developing skills. This holds true more for Supply Chain because of its vast overlap with many functions & far reaching impact. Skills development starts with assessment of Business & Supply Chain needs for today & future. This is then followed up defining various skills for different levels of positions, roles & responsibilities, linking it to the Key Result Areas for each. Next step is to get into detailed assessment of gaps in skills & performance for each individual in the Supply Chain. Only then the development plan can be worked out & training is just one of the way for development. There are many questions related to the kind of trainings e.g. whether customized or generic.

What makes the whole process complex is the lack of understanding of various supply chain skills, as they are not well defined. For example, is Demand Planning a skill for Sales or Supply Chain? Similarly, what role should be played by Supply Chain in product design or process design, is not clear to many. As a result, deliverable & skill gaps in Supply Chain are seen in a narrow context. In many cases, the effect experienced in the Supply Chain is caused by an event on which Supply Chain had no skills to influence. Companies keep beating around the outcome without understanding the cause & effect relationship.

Sending people to short term training courses or workshops is not an answer to address the skills gap. It can at best help to show your good intentions towards people development. The real training is a continuous process and has focused deliverable. It requires clear linkage with the real life situation & the job a person is handling. It focuses more on the addressing the cause, irrespective of the fact which part of organization it lies in.

In a nutshell, addressing the skills development in Supply Chain is a quite involved process and any simplistic approach could be counter productive. The ROI of hiring an expert over a long run could be very attractive.

Take a brief Survey on Supply Chain Skill Assessment.

Supply Chain Top 25

AMR Research has come out with Top 25 companies with best Supply Chain. The company to top the list is Apple, followed by Nokia, Dell and P&G. Surprisingly, Wal-Mart is ranked at No. 6. Motorola that ranked No. 12 in 2007 doesn't appear in the list for 2008.

Going deeper into the criteria for rating, AMR has chosen 2 parameters i.e. Inventory Turns and Days Sales Outstanding (DSO). The criteria itself is very lopsided towards financial measurement. By this criteria Dell should have come on top, so have they changed their business model? What about customer service or satisfaction parameters? Inventory turns and DSO can vary for different industry or business model. The concept of differentiating Supply Chain based on efficiency or responsiveness has been completely overlooked. The approach followed by AMR is over simplified.

The prelude to the ranking reads like this "The AMR Research Supply Chain Top 25 identifies companies that demonstrate leadership in applying demand-driven principles to their global supply chains. Our goal is to show how supply chain excellence contributes to economic value creation, and, in so doing, to raise awareness of the importance and influence of the profession." However the measurement used for ranking is not completely aligned. Such surveys only distort the real picture.

Logistics Landascape In India After March 2010

In the last Union Budget, the CST rates were brought down to 2%. This gives a confidence to government's commitment to phase out CST by March 2010.

This decision will obviate the existing need of maintaining CFA or Depots in every state to avoid double taxation. This is going to change the entire logistics landscape in the country. This will provide a huge opportunity to reduce logistics cost (10% - 15%) by consolidation of warehouse infrastructure. Currently, all consumer goods companies operate 20 to 40 warehouses in the country, that can come down to 5 t0 10 progressively. This would also mean that small players will be out of the scene and big 3PLs will take over the majority of logistics business.

Is the logistics industry preparing itself for the change, well in advance? The logistics players must start planning & building the infrastructure "now". The Planning requires mapping the demand pattern of major consumer goods companies, creation of logistics hubs, looking at the high volume / high speed trucks, container handling facilities, railways connections etc. The role of 3PLs in the supply chain will increase to customer service, route optimization instead of just shipping goods.

With reduction in number of warehouses, servicing small customers /orders will become difficult. So, 3PLs will have to create cross-docking facilities to operate efficiently, like a relay-racer end to end. The order servicing time to distributors or customers will increase, so this will need a mindset change. However the service reliability will improve with professional 3PLs and stock-outs will reduce due to consolidation of inventory.

This will also open doors for greater multi-modal transportation opportunities using road, rail & even ships for long distances. Railways will be an important mode for the consumer goods companies and not just for bulk items. Also, containerized movements will get a fillip and container requirement will go up substantially.

However, it is not known if the things like differnt forms for different states , octroi, road permits, toll gates will also be done away with. If these bottleneck remain then the entire benefit will not be realized. The industry or CII should represent to government to already take steps in abolishing non value adding procedures.

We propose to form a work group of people who are interested in it.

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